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Bulletins and News Discussion from July 7th to July 13th, 2025 - Sanctions on Russia: The Sequel

Image is of the Power of Siberia natural gas pipeline, which transports gas from Russia to China. This isn't an oil pipeline (such as the ESPO) but I thought it looked cool. Source here.


Trump has recently proposed a 500% tariff on goods from countries that trade with Russia, including India and China (who buy ~70% of Russia's oil output), as well as a 10% additional tariff on goods from countries that "align themselves with BRICS." Considering that China is the largest trading partner of most of the countries on the planet at this point, and India and Brazil are reasonably strong regional players, I'm not sure what exactly "alignment" means, but it could be pretty bad.

Sanctions and tariffs on Russian products have been difficult to achieve in practice. It's easy to write an order to sanction Russia, but much harder to actually enforce these sorts of things because of, for example, the Russian shadow oil fleet, or countries like Kazakhstan acting as covert middlemen (well, as covert as a very sudden oil export boom can be).

Considering that China was pretty soundly victorious last time around, I'm cautiously optimistic, especially because China and India just outright cutting off their supply of energy and fuel would be catastrophic to them (and if Iran and Israel go to war again any time in the near future, it'll only be more disastrous). Barring China and India kowtowing to Trump and copying Europe vis-a-vis Nordstream 2 (which isn't impossible, I suppose), the question is whether China and India will appear to accede to these commands while secretly continuing trade with Russia through middlemen, or if they will be more defiant in the face of American pressure.


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860 comments
  • As an outside observer, it sorta feels like after the useless "no more kings" protests that achieved absolutely nothing, and months of similar movements, combined with sporadic and more effective violent resistance being seen in some areas, that a large mass of people are getting very radicalised and seeing things clearly around what's going to need to happen to stop ICE. Every thread about it on /r/news seems to be dominated by liberals openly stating that violent resistance is necessary and good, and there's far less of the "you're giving them an excuse to crack down!!!" type shit flying around. This wasn't the case even a couple of months ago. The Democratic base is getting to the point where their calls for blood are making it into national news, to the horror of their leadership. Is this an accurate assessment?

  • Trump put tariffs on Canada, Mexico and the European Union. And they all negotiate with him beforehand. Trump accused Canada of worsening the opioid addiction epidemic in the US and taxed the country +35%; Mexico too, Trump accused Mexico of collaborating with its drug cartels to target the US. +30% tariffs. Meanwhile, he taxed Europe +30% for not opening businesses in the US.

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  • China has sent a direct message to the US: “tariffs are not weapons of intimidation”. Spokeswoman Mao Ning said that tariffs should not be used as a form of coercion or interference in internal affairs. The statement was made on the 11th at a press conference in Beijing. Beijing reacted by saying that “sovereign equality and non-interference” are UN principles and that trade wars benefit no one. The criticism also targets the threat of a surcharge against countries aligned with the BRICS. At a meeting in ASEAN, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi stressed that American tariffs are trying to prevent the growth of countries in Southeast Asia. Cambodia, which was slapped with a 36% tariff, was cited as an example of Washington's pressure.

  • Russia also defended Brazil and took a swipe at the US. A day after Trump announced a 50% surcharge on Brazilian products, Russia's deputy foreign minister, Serguei Riabkov, suggested that the BRICS could expand even further According to Riabkov, partner countries such as Bolivia, Cuba, Malaysia, Vietnam and others can bring “added value” to the bloc and strengthen the multilateral front. The speech was seen as a diplomatic response to US tariffs, which are trying to isolate Brazil and attack the BRICS for geopolitical reasons. With the bloc more united, Brazil gains support against US blackmail.

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  • One of the most humorous fallouts of Trump's "get Bolsonaro out of jail" 50% tariff to hit the Brazilian media so far, involves a strip club in Fortaleza, which is now charging a 50% extra surcharge for American sex tourists. FAFO.

  • The Guardian: Farm worker dies a day after chaotic immigration raid at California farm

    On June 10th, during violent immigration raids at two farm sites in Carpinteria and Camarillo, California, several workers were critically injured and one, Jaime Alanis, has died as a result of injuries sustained. Elizabeth Strater, national vice-president of the United Farm Workers, said Alanis was injured after a 30ft fall from a building during the raid. I haven't yet seen the specific circumstances that led to his falling or the other injuries.

    Community members and family of workers responded to the raid, federal vehicles were pelted with rocks and other objects, no reports of officers injured. Four US citizens were arrested for “assaulting or resisting officers”. Feds have offered a $50,000 reward for information of one person suspected of firing a gun at federal agents. In a statement regarding the incident yesterday, the United Farm Workers have said several US citizens remain unaccounted for.

    The mother of an American worker said her son was held at the worksite for 11 hours and told her agents took workers’ cellphones to prevent them from calling family or filming and forced them to erase cellphone video of agents at the site.

    The woman said her son told her agents marked the men’s hands with ink to distinguish their immigration status. She spoke to the Associated Press on condition of anonymity because she feared reprisals from the government.

    I saw it reported by someone on bluesky that a community member detained without charges was not allowed to be released until they deleted footage of the raid from their phone.

  • Communist Party of Bohemia and Moravia on the probable illegalization of their party:

    The Chamber of Deputies has definitively confirmed that it systematically silences its opponents by restricting constitutional rights and freedoms when, as part of the amendment to the Criminal Code, it approved the criminalization of all forms of support and promotion of the communist movement! Not one of the two hundred deputies spoke out against this proposal!

    Fial's government is still responsible for introducing censorship, banning websites, bullying and persecution of political opponents and their criminalization, and firing people from jobs for political reasons.

    We strongly reject such a proposal for an amendment to the Criminal Code and consider it purposeful and discriminatory. By repeatedly trying to outlaw the KSČM, which has been rejected by the public several times in the past, the proposers want to please the rest of their voters and intimidate anyone who criticizes the current regime.

    However, the truth cannot be silenced or banned. No one will ever silence the KSČM, nor the values that communists stand for – the values of international cooperation, solidarity, progress and peace.

    Join the protest against the systematic liquidation of the political opposition!

    The coalition in which KSCM runs is polling around 5% for October's elections, which would bring them (as well as any left party) back into parliament after falling below the 5% threshold in 2021

  • Lula's worker's party in Brazil has both won the lottery and built a great strayegy with the prize.

    After Trump announced sanctions on Brazil, the major media outlets of the country, usually very right wing and all obviously ran by land owners, are either echoing the government's communication on the matter, or have Lula on for great interviews about it.

    What probably happened is that the sanctions would affect the earnings of one of the classes that run the country: land owners/large farmers. On one hand, they have Lula's party and allies, who have been mostly anti-us imperialism, and Bolsonaro and allies, whose whole thing was promising to give every last bit of our land to Americans. Well, who could possibly be their best bet in this situation? Now the fucking worker's party is seizing the nationalism discussion away from the fascists and wrapping it around some form of anti-imperialism.

    The most interesting thing is the situation that is being drawn: it is now in the best interest of the country's capitalists and landowners that they support the anti-imperialist front, and the leftists are actually taking advantage of this to get stronger. Does this seem absolutely insane to anybody else? It might be the weed I may have just now, but this realization blew my mind

  • Someone is doing "antifascist" agitprop in the government bathroom

    PBS News:

    A State Department employee shared with PBS News an image from inside the department. The image includes a piece of paper taped to a mirror with the words, "Colleagues, if you remain: RESIST FASCISM. Remember the oath you vowed to uphold."

  • Lula makes fun of Bolsonaro and says tariffs are based on “lies”. During an event in Espírito Santo about the Mariana dam, the PT leader made fun of what was supposed to be a conversation between Eduardo Bolsonaro and Donald Trump, with the former pleading for his father's freedom.

    "So I want to say, with all due respect to President Trump, you are misinformed, very misinformed. The United States does not have a trade deficit with Brazil. It is Brazil that has a trade deficit with the United States. Just so you have an idea, in 15 years, between trade and services, we have a deficit of 410 billion dollars with the United States. It's up to us to tax him. Now, what is the reason he gives for taxing us? Firstly, he's fighting a lie that the United States doesn't have a deficit with Brazil. Secondly, what is his logic?

    [Lula does a voice mimicking Trump]: "Oh, pwease don't presecute Bolsonaro, pwease stops this immediately. Stop this immediately!"

    [Lula returns to his normal voice]: Because the 'thing' [Jair Bolsonaro] sent a son [Eduardo Bolsonaro] who was a congressman away from the Congress to go there and ask:

    [Lula does a childish voice mimicking Eduardo]: “Hey, Trump, for God's sake, Trump, my free my daddy, don't let my daddy be arrested, bwaah bwaah”.

    [Lula returns to his normal voice]: These people need to be ashamed of themselves. Be ashamed of yourself, be ashamed of yourself, because the smallest thing in a man, he has no character. You saw his son on the internet yesterday reading a letter:

    [Lula does a childish voice mimicking Eduardo]: "'Oh, Trump, Trump' you know? 'Pwease say you won't tax Brazil, if my father isn't arrested.' What kind of man is this, folks? What kind of man is this who has no shame? Shouldn't he be facing his trial head on and proving that he was innocent [instead of doing this]?"

  • I've noticed Ansarallah blurs out the surrounding terrain whenever they post missile launch videos, but most of the time it looks like totally nondescript hills and vegetation. Would it really be possible to figure out the location of these launches if they weren't blurred? And if so, does the blurring actually help if you can still get a vague outline of the horizon like in this one?

  • Hey y'all. I'm an alt-acc of a user over here, made it for opsec purposes to post specific news regarding my home region, i.e. Spain.

    Maybe this isn't news worthy to everyone, but I wanted to post regardless because it's important to me (Spanish): Rent prices in my hometown rise to 8th highest in Spain

    With an interannual rise of 13%, of which 6 percent points over the past three months, the prices now stand above 20€/m² for the first time ever. This is the town I've been born in, raised, and lived until I was 23, and now that I'm back in Spain after some years abroad I've been outpriced from the town where I grew, as have been many of my friends. 20€/m² may not sound like a lot to fellow USian comrades, but salaries in Spain aren't what they are over there. An average salary may be something like 1600-1800€ a month for a full time job, so a very modest 60m² flat would set you back monthly 1200€ of that.

    I wanted to share my pain, my family and some of my friends are here, and while I didn't necessarily plan to live here all my life (and I don't live here now, partially because of the prices), it absolutely fucking sucks knowing that I won't be able to have a life here the same way my parents have had. When someone tells me about dangerous communism and forcible relocations during the literal direst times in modern history, I can't help but feel like people are absolutely blind to the millions who are economically forced to relocate in capitalism during times of peace and abundance. But I guess, as always, economic violence doesn't fucking count because I could technically choose to shove myself into a sardine-can apartment with 2 strangers while still dropping 1/3 of my income monthly to make the landlord richer. I have to live more than an hour away and buy a car and pollute the air and empty my wallet in the process to be able to see my fucking family. At least I can listen to socialist podcasts on the way telling me how monthly rent was 3% of the average income in the Soviet Union 55 years ago lmfao

  • The El-Salvador of the Baltic: Estonia in Talks with NATO Members to Expand Estonia's Prison Rental System

    ERR - Johannes Voltri today


    In addition to the agreement with Sweden, which has already reached the ratification stage, to keep its prisoners in Estonia, and Finland's interest in concluding a similar agreement, there are other countries that have informally explored the possibility of renting prison places from Estonia, Justice and Digital Affairs Minister Liisa Pakosta said.

    "Yes, there are more than one. /---/ But I would skip discussing this list here," Pakosta told Vikerraadio's "Uudis+" programme on Friday.

    Asked to clarify the information, however, she added that Estonia has said from the beginning that the only reason to do this is for wider security cooperation. "Maybe we are only talking about NATO member states," the minister said.

    At the same time, Pakosta stressed that Estonia, unlike many other countries, would rent out its prisons on the condition that Estonian laws would remain in force in these detention facilities, and he has said as much to Finnish Justice Minister Leena Meri.

    "It's just that the Swedes have clearly been the quickest, and we have had these negotiations with the Swedes at executive level. Now it is up to the parliaments of both countries to decide. If the people's parliaments in both countries ratify the agreement, it will go ahead. If they don't, then we'll start looking again," he said.

    Asked whether he himself would like to conclude a similar agreement with Finland, the Justice Minister replied. We have no ambition to become some kind of country that rents out prison space. We are not aiming to rent out a prison for a prison.

    • Machine translated with DeepL
  • Source: Arnaud Bertrand / Twitter

    This might be the most remarkable geopolitical document I've seen come out of a major European institution so far this century.

    France’s Parliament has just produced an extraordinary 153-page report that calls for nothing less than a complete strategic realignment of Europe.

    The document systematically dismantles the EU's current geopolitical positioning - "vassalized" to the U.S., in the report's words - as a catastrophic failure that has led to the EU seeing "its influence diminish and its interests poorly protected."

    The report details 50 recommendations from the "creation of a common world currency" (recommendation #14) to dedollarize the global economy, to "replacing the EU's strategy in the Indo-Pacific region with a cooperative approach including China" (recommendation #11).

    In general the report's central recommendation is that Europe break free from Atlantic subordination and instead achieve strategic autonomy by partnering with China.

    This would mark a complete historical reversal - for the first time since the colonial era, the historical West choosing equal strategic partnership with a Global South nation as an alternative to Western alliance structures.

    The report (which you can find here: https://assemblee-nationale.fr/dyn/17/rapports/due/l17b1588_rapport-information.pdf) is in French so I wrote a detailed article breaking down its most explosive findings and recommendations, an explaining why this could be its last chance to avoid irrelevance in a multipolar world.

  • Egypt confirms acquisition of Chinese HQ-9B long-range air defence system Military Africa

    Egypt has officially confirmed its deployment of the Chinese HQ-9B long-range air defence system, a move that marks a notable enhancement of its military capabilities and reflects a growing partnership with Beijing. This confirmation came from retired Major General Samir Farag, a former high-ranking official in the Egyptian Armed Forces, during an interview on Sada El-Balad TV. Farag revealed that Egypt’s arsenal includes various modern defence systems, with the HQ-9B—a system comparable to Russia’s S-400—being a key component. This disclosure, reported by Israeli media outlet nziv, reveals Egypt’s strategic shift toward diversifying its arms suppliers and strengthening its air defence network. The HQ-9B’s advanced capabilities, including its ability to engage a wide array of aerial threats, position Egypt to better address regional security challenges while navigating complex geopolitical dynamics.

    Egypt’s decision to acquire the HQ-9B stems from a combination of strategic, economic, and political factors. Frustrated by Western restrictions on arms sales, Cairo has turned to China for advanced systems that come without the political constraints often imposed by the United States and European nations. For instance, Egypt’s F-16 fleet, supplied by the U.S., is equipped with outdated AIM-7 Sparrow missiles, while France has withheld long-range MICA missiles for its Rafale jets. In contrast, China’s export terms are more flexible, offering Egypt access to cutting-edge technology without restrictive end-user agreements. The HQ-9B’s cost-effectiveness also makes it an attractive alternative to pricier Western systems like the U.S.-made Patriot PAC-3, which carries both a higher price tag and political strings. Compared to Russia’s S-400, the HQ-9B provides similar capabilities at a lower cost, though it lacks the same combat-tested pedigree.

    The timing of this acquisition is tied to Egypt’s evolving security concerns. Tensions with Israel over its actions in Gaza, along with Turkey’s support for Islamist groups in Syria and Libya, pose direct threats to Cairo’s interests. The Western-backed assault on Libya in 2011, with Turkish involvement, left a lasting impression on Egyptian leadership, reinforcing the need for independent aerial warfare capabilities. Egypt’s air force, while sizable, remains constrained by its reliance on Western suppliers, who have been reluctant to provide the most advanced munitions. The HQ-9B, alongside other Chinese systems like the Wing Loong-1D drones and reported interest in J-31 stealth fighters, signals a deliberate pivot toward Beijing as a defence partner. This shift not only enhances Egypt’s deterrence capabilities but also strengthens its bargaining power with Western allies, who may now feel pressure to loosen restrictions on arms sales.

    The HQ-9B’s deployment in Egypt also has broader implications for the Middle East’s balance of power. Israel, which maintains a qualitative military edge in the region, must now account for Egypt’s bolstered air defences. The system’s ability to detect stealth aircraft and intercept precision-guided munitions complicates Israel’s operational planning, particularly in scenarios involving strikes on Egyptian targets. Turkey, another regional rival, could face similar challenges if tensions escalate, as the HQ-9B extends Egypt’s defensive reach. Beyond Egypt, China’s growing role as an arms supplier challenges the dominance of Western and Russian systems in the Middle East. Countries like Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Pakistan have already acquired the HQ-9B, drawn by its affordability and China’s willingness to transfer technology without political preconditions. Egypt’s procurement could inspire other nations to follow suit, further eroding the West’s influence in the region’s defence markets.

    This is the end of Russian military industrial complex. The India-Pakistan conflict truly marked the turn of the tide and the ascendence of Chinese military technology displacing those of Russia’s among Global South countries.

    I predict Russia’s economy will continue to worsen as it loses global market in military export, one of the few things Russia is actually good at and a major source of foreign income, and will in turn stifle investments in research and development over the longer term, ultimately leading to the demise of its status as a global leader in military technology.

    PS. Europe’s as well, no doubt.

  • private capital porkies are ecstatic

    bitcoin is at 118k, dow at 44k, seems they wriggled their way out of this jam (again), not-curious that with record profits, curious with falling out investment into primary means of production. Just straight worship towards oil/gas/weapons/ai

    interestingly, industrial rare metals (silver/copper/palladium, nickel is the exception) going upwards as well, welcome back converter thieves.

  • Over three years into the Ukraine war, Russia has finally stopped using lower frequency long wavelength radio for communications between strategic bombers . They are now using higher frequency shorter wavelength radio, suggested to be UHF, for communications. UHF radio is propagated by line of sight and has a much shorter range. This means Ukrainian hobbyist radio operators can no longer listen in on the communications of the bombers (for example, the bombers announcing the launch of cruise missiles and launch location on radio), and can no longer announce the launch of missiles on their telegram channels. These telegram channels only know that the missiles are on their way when they get detected and enter Ukrainian airspace. This change has affected all monitoring channels.

    How long before Russia uses SATCOM radio for long range secure communications on strategic bomber and refueling aircraft, so they can't be tracked at takeoff and can operate "radio silent". Do we have to wait another three years?

  • A Ukrainian Antonov AN-124 transport/cargo aircraft was spotted flying over Kyiv/Kiev today, and made it's way to Poland shortly afterwards, in other words it was not shot down. The first time a rearward Ukrainian assest has been seen flying over the Ukrainian capital since the start of the war.

    Source

  • Flavio Bolsonaro: "How do we get out of this mess now? We'll continue with our pride, right? ‘We're Brazilians’? We're all proud to be Brazilians, but how do we resolve this situation? If you look at the Second World War, what did the United States do to Japan? It dropped an atomic bomb on Hiroshima to demonstrate its strength. What was Japan's reaction at the time? They said: ‘Look, we're patriots here; this is US interference in our country; we're going to resist; out with the Yankees’. What was the consequence three days later?"

    "A second atomic bomb in Nagasaki and then, yes, on August 16, 1945, two weeks after the first bomb, there was a formal surrender by Japan. So this situation has to be seen as a war negotiation, yes, where we are not in normal conditions; we are not in a position to demand anything from the Trump administration; he will do whatever he wants, regardless of our will. It's up to us to take responsibility for preventing two atomic bombs from falling here in Brazil so that we can then announce that we're going to grant amnesty; so that we can then announce... I think it's a second thing that he'll also want to put on the negotiating table because it's what's in his letter, which is the issue of freedom of expression on social networks."

    The informal announcement of the surrender took place on August 15, 1945, nine days, not two weeks, after the first bomb, dropped on August 6. It wasn't until September 2 that it was formalized.

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  • Brazilian demonstrators burn effigy of Donald Trump in anger at his interference in the country. Spontaneous protests occurred around the country on Thursday in response to Trump’s attempts to halt trial of coup plotter Jair Bolsonaro. For the first time Donald Trump has disabled comments on his Instagram account in wake of backlash from furious Brazilians over his interference in the country.

    Lula gave 2 tv interviews today, including a long one on the main evening broadcast, to discuss the Trump imbroglio. Aside from the substance, one thing striking is Lula’s profound offense at the fact that Trump communicated the move out of nowhere via a social media post. Lula just now systematically dismantling the arguments Trump made in his letter yesterday announcing 50% tariffs on Brazilian goods. Lula says he initially thought the letter was fake because of how unprecedented it was.

    Lula responds to Trump’s tariff threats

    “If [Trump] had done that here in Brazil, he would be processed and tried just like Bolsonaro, because he undermined democracy, because he undermined the Constitution.”

    Brazilian President and workers' leader, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, responded to the letter sent by US President Donald Trump regarding internal affairs of the South American country and threatening to impose 50% tariffs on Brazilian goods. Lula qualified the letter as an "insult" to Brazil, and he explained that Trump "is trying to do this with the whole world."

  • In a letter sent to several countries to announce tariffs on their products, Donald Trump used a paragraph identical to the one that appears in all the documents. The passage threatens to impose new tariffs if the countries react and justifies the measure with an alleged risk to US national security.

    In the letters to other countries, Trump used a standard text that changed only the name of the recipient and the amount of the tariff. These versions stated that the US would be willing to maintain trade relations, but that the tariffs were necessary to make trade fairer and more balanced. In the case of Brazil, it was different. Trump began the letter by mentioning former president Jair Bolsonaro, criticized decisions by the Supreme Federal Court (STF) and announced the opening of an investigation against the country.

    • Telegram
  • NEWS FROM THE PETTY NAZI FIEFDOM OF THE NORTH:

    "Democratic" Estonia is ruled by a coalition now backed by only 18.8 percent of the population. Oh and also, the ruling coalition is proposing more cuts and tax hikes for raising military expending! Not to mention their opening an Israeli embassy in the country, which is unsuprisingly incredibly unpopular among Estonians, this is probably related to the military spending increase(s) since Israel is Estonia's biggest source of arms and munitions. Basically, more money to Israel, yay!!!

    In other news, equally earth shattering news and positive for once, the pro-Palestinian and legal descendant of the EKP, the Communist Party, the "Vasakliit" (Left Union or Left Alliance) is backed 7 percent of people aged 18-24!


    1, Rekordmadala toetusega Reformierakond langes neljandaks: https://www.postimees.ee/8283416/rekordmadala-toetusega-reformierakond-langes-neljandaks

    2, Erakondade toetus 2018. aastast praeguseni: https://www.err.ee/reitingud

  • https://xcancel.com/MayadeenEnglish/status/1943527247702286350

    Israeli media reported on Thursday the discovery of a dead reserve soldier in the illegal Har Homa settlement in occupied al-Quds, amid a growing wave of suicides among Israeli occupation forces since the war on Gaza began in October 2023.

    According to Israeli newspaper Haaretz, suicide rates within the Israeli military have reached unprecedented levels, with seven cases recorded between October 7 and the end of December 2023, followed by 21 in 2024, and at least 14 more reported in 2025 so far.

    Over the weekend, another occupation soldier reportedly died by suicide after experiencing severe psychological distress linked to his deployment in Gaza and southern Lebanon. The mental health toll has become a mounting concern for the Israeli regime, particularly as reports point to a significant manpower shortage within its ranks.

    Despite the rising numbers, the Israeli occupation forces have refused to release the official 2025 suicide statistics, stating they'll publish a comprehensive report only at year’s end, fueling criticism and raising questions about transparency within the military command.

  • During the Iranian attack on the US military base in Qatar just before the "end" of the Israeli-US war against Iran, the one ballistic missile that was not intercepted ("set free" according to Trump) hit a radome at the US base, as revealed by new satellite imagery. Likely the most accurate Iranian ballistic missile strike of the entire war. I'd guess a Hormuz missile, a Fateh-110 or even potentially 313 ballistic missile with an anti radiation seeker. The much shorter range compared to targeting Israel, plus the anti radiation seeker locking on to the largest emission source of electromagnetic radiation, would explain the high accuracy.

    Source, with satellite imagery and before and after video

  • During a meeting with the President of the United States Donald Trump, at the White House, the Prime Minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, showed the letter sent to the Norwegian committee, highlighting that, in his opinion, the Republican president deserves the recognition of the Nobel Peace Prize, but with his wrong actions, Trump denotes that he would be the winner of the "prize" of the war.

860 comments