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Bulletins and News Discussion from July 7th to July 13th, 2025 - Sanctions on Russia: The Sequel

Image is of the Power of Siberia natural gas pipeline, which transports gas from Russia to China. This isn't an oil pipeline (such as the ESPO) but I thought it looked cool. Source here.


Trump has recently proposed a 500% tariff on goods from countries that trade with Russia, including India and China (who buy ~70% of Russia's oil output), as well as a 10% additional tariff on goods from countries that "align themselves with BRICS." Considering that China is the largest trading partner of most of the countries on the planet at this point, and India and Brazil are reasonably strong regional players, I'm not sure what exactly "alignment" means, but it could be pretty bad.

Sanctions and tariffs on Russian products have been difficult to achieve in practice. It's easy to write an order to sanction Russia, but much harder to actually enforce these sorts of things because of, for example, the Russian shadow oil fleet, or countries like Kazakhstan acting as covert middlemen (well, as covert as a very sudden oil export boom can be).

Considering that China was pretty soundly victorious last time around, I'm cautiously optimistic, especially because China and India just outright cutting off their supply of energy and fuel would be catastrophic to them (and if Iran and Israel go to war again any time in the near future, it'll only be more disastrous). Barring China and India kowtowing to Trump and copying Europe vis-a-vis Nordstream 2 (which isn't impossible, I suppose), the question is whether China and India will appear to accede to these commands while secretly continuing trade with Russia through middlemen, or if they will be more defiant in the face of American pressure.


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  • Egypt confirms acquisition of Chinese HQ-9B long-range air defence system Military Africa

    Egypt has officially confirmed its deployment of the Chinese HQ-9B long-range air defence system, a move that marks a notable enhancement of its military capabilities and reflects a growing partnership with Beijing. This confirmation came from retired Major General Samir Farag, a former high-ranking official in the Egyptian Armed Forces, during an interview on Sada El-Balad TV. Farag revealed that Egypt’s arsenal includes various modern defence systems, with the HQ-9B—a system comparable to Russia’s S-400—being a key component. This disclosure, reported by Israeli media outlet nziv, reveals Egypt’s strategic shift toward diversifying its arms suppliers and strengthening its air defence network. The HQ-9B’s advanced capabilities, including its ability to engage a wide array of aerial threats, position Egypt to better address regional security challenges while navigating complex geopolitical dynamics.

    Egypt’s decision to acquire the HQ-9B stems from a combination of strategic, economic, and political factors. Frustrated by Western restrictions on arms sales, Cairo has turned to China for advanced systems that come without the political constraints often imposed by the United States and European nations. For instance, Egypt’s F-16 fleet, supplied by the U.S., is equipped with outdated AIM-7 Sparrow missiles, while France has withheld long-range MICA missiles for its Rafale jets. In contrast, China’s export terms are more flexible, offering Egypt access to cutting-edge technology without restrictive end-user agreements. The HQ-9B’s cost-effectiveness also makes it an attractive alternative to pricier Western systems like the U.S.-made Patriot PAC-3, which carries both a higher price tag and political strings. Compared to Russia’s S-400, the HQ-9B provides similar capabilities at a lower cost, though it lacks the same combat-tested pedigree.

    The timing of this acquisition is tied to Egypt’s evolving security concerns. Tensions with Israel over its actions in Gaza, along with Turkey’s support for Islamist groups in Syria and Libya, pose direct threats to Cairo’s interests. The Western-backed assault on Libya in 2011, with Turkish involvement, left a lasting impression on Egyptian leadership, reinforcing the need for independent aerial warfare capabilities. Egypt’s air force, while sizable, remains constrained by its reliance on Western suppliers, who have been reluctant to provide the most advanced munitions. The HQ-9B, alongside other Chinese systems like the Wing Loong-1D drones and reported interest in J-31 stealth fighters, signals a deliberate pivot toward Beijing as a defence partner. This shift not only enhances Egypt’s deterrence capabilities but also strengthens its bargaining power with Western allies, who may now feel pressure to loosen restrictions on arms sales.

    The HQ-9B’s deployment in Egypt also has broader implications for the Middle East’s balance of power. Israel, which maintains a qualitative military edge in the region, must now account for Egypt’s bolstered air defences. The system’s ability to detect stealth aircraft and intercept precision-guided munitions complicates Israel’s operational planning, particularly in scenarios involving strikes on Egyptian targets. Turkey, another regional rival, could face similar challenges if tensions escalate, as the HQ-9B extends Egypt’s defensive reach. Beyond Egypt, China’s growing role as an arms supplier challenges the dominance of Western and Russian systems in the Middle East. Countries like Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Pakistan have already acquired the HQ-9B, drawn by its affordability and China’s willingness to transfer technology without political preconditions. Egypt’s procurement could inspire other nations to follow suit, further eroding the West’s influence in the region’s defence markets.

    This is the end of Russian military industrial complex. The India-Pakistan conflict truly marked the turn of the tide and the ascendence of Chinese military technology displacing those of Russia’s among Global South countries.

    I predict Russia’s economy will continue to worsen as it loses global market in military export, one of the few things Russia is actually good at and a major source of foreign income, and will in turn stifle investments in research and development over the longer term, ultimately leading to the demise of its status as a global leader in military technology.

    PS. Europe’s as well, no doubt.

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