Skip Navigation

Bulletins and News Discussion from July 7th to July 13th, 2025 - Sanctions on Russia: The Sequel

Image is of the Power of Siberia natural gas pipeline, which transports gas from Russia to China. This isn't an oil pipeline (such as the ESPO) but I thought it looked cool. Source here.


Trump has recently proposed a 500% tariff on goods from countries that trade with Russia, including India and China (who buy ~70% of Russia's oil output), as well as a 10% additional tariff on goods from countries that "align themselves with BRICS." Considering that China is the largest trading partner of most of the countries on the planet at this point, and India and Brazil are reasonably strong regional players, I'm not sure what exactly "alignment" means, but it could be pretty bad.

Sanctions and tariffs on Russian products have been difficult to achieve in practice. It's easy to write an order to sanction Russia, but much harder to actually enforce these sorts of things because of, for example, the Russian shadow oil fleet, or countries like Kazakhstan acting as covert middlemen (well, as covert as a very sudden oil export boom can be).

Considering that China was pretty soundly victorious last time around, I'm cautiously optimistic, especially because China and India just outright cutting off their supply of energy and fuel would be catastrophic to them (and if Iran and Israel go to war again any time in the near future, it'll only be more disastrous). Barring China and India kowtowing to Trump and copying Europe vis-a-vis Nordstream 2 (which isn't impossible, I suppose), the question is whether China and India will appear to accede to these commands while secretly continuing trade with Russia through middlemen, or if they will be more defiant in the face of American pressure.


Last week's thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

You're viewing a single thread.

891 comments
  • Source: Arnaud Bertrand / Twitter

    This might be the most remarkable geopolitical document I've seen come out of a major European institution so far this century.

    France’s Parliament has just produced an extraordinary 153-page report that calls for nothing less than a complete strategic realignment of Europe.

    The document systematically dismantles the EU's current geopolitical positioning - "vassalized" to the U.S., in the report's words - as a catastrophic failure that has led to the EU seeing "its influence diminish and its interests poorly protected."

    The report details 50 recommendations from the "creation of a common world currency" (recommendation #14) to dedollarize the global economy, to "replacing the EU's strategy in the Indo-Pacific region with a cooperative approach including China" (recommendation #11).

    In general the report's central recommendation is that Europe break free from Atlantic subordination and instead achieve strategic autonomy by partnering with China.

    This would mark a complete historical reversal - for the first time since the colonial era, the historical West choosing equal strategic partnership with a Global South nation as an alternative to Western alliance structures.

    The report (which you can find here: https://assemblee-nationale.fr/dyn/17/rapports/due/l17b1588_rapport-information.pdf) is in French so I wrote a detailed article breaking down its most explosive findings and recommendations, an explaining why this could be its last chance to avoid irrelevance in a multipolar world.

891 comments