

How weird is that, given that just a few months ago the Conservatives enjoyed a 25-point lead over the hapless Liberals? If the latest Nanos numbers hold up, that would represent a 31-point collapse in support for the Conservative Party of Canada over a very short period of time.
When the post-mortem of Election 2025 is done, Trump, Trudeau’s resignation and the end of the carbon tax will all be important considerations. So too will Carney’s ascension to the leadership.
Leafs add 2 in the 2nd period. 4-1 Leafs after 2! (edit: sorry, I excitedly saw this post in local feed and didn't notice the community. Didn't mean to brigade or anything like that :)
Cool! Welcome!
https://338canada.com/record.htm
The 338Canada / Qc125 model has thus far covered 18 general elections in Canada. In total, 2,039 electoral districts were projected.
So far, the model has correctly identified the winner in 1,821 districts, a success rate of 89.3%.
Among the 218 remaining districts, 132 of the winners (6.5%) obtained a share of the vote that was within the projection's margin of error (moe). Only 86 districts (4.2%) were complete misses.
On this site, electoral districts are labelled according to the odds of winning by the projected favourite party. If a party's odds of winning are at or above 99.9% (formerly 99.5%), the district is labelled as safe. Between 90% and 99.9%, the district is likely. Between 70% ad 90%, we use the label leaning. Finally, if no party has odds above 70%, the district will be labelled as a toss up.
Here below is the complete breakdown of correct and incorrect winners from safe, likely, leaning and toss up districts:
How to find projections for your electoral district (ie, riding)
https://338canada.com/districts.htm
Scroll down and enter your riding where it says Search your electoral district...
I did my part meme. Toronto here. Arrived to advance polls mid-afternoon on Good Friday. Waited 30 min to vote. Lines were twice as long when I left. Similar reaction to others here: I've never seen advance voting this busy before. (It being a Stat holiday is probably a factor too.) If you don't want to wait long, go to advance voting, and go at a strategic time. I am guessing - and hope too - that turnout will be really big this year. Polls might be super busy on election day.
More than 100 new measles cases reported in Ontario as total reaches 925
Measles has spread to 109 more people in Ontario over the last week, bringing the province’s total cases to 925 since an outbreak began in October.
Sixty-nine people have required hospitalization – that’s eight more than last week – including four in intensive care.
Measles is still predominantly infecting unvaccinated infants, children and adolescents in southwestern Ontario.
Cases in Alberta have also been climbing since March, with 83 confirmed as of Wednesday.
Meanwhile, Quebec is on the verge of declaring its outbreak over if no new infections are reported by Saturday.
It sounds like you're going through a real tough time. You're welcome to message me if you need someone to talk to.
Thank you for all the fortitude, love, and cuteness you spread on c/TanEggs. I love your posts!
The normalization of for-profit health care in Canada is opening the door to rising costs and conflicts.
Allegations that the United Conservative Party government pressured Alberta Health Services to accept exorbitant contracts to operate chartered surgical facilities in Edmonton, Red Deer and Lethbridge have dominated the news in Alberta since February.
Former AHS CEO Athana Mentzelopoulos’s allegation that she was fired for scrutinizing these contracts has created a scandal dubbed “CorruptCare” by the NDP Opposition.
Rather than being an isolated incident, the CorruptCare scandal represents the result of the contracting out and hollowing out of public health care in Alberta.
Whether it’s chartered surgical facilities, privatized laboratory services or contract nursing agencies, repeated instances of introducing the profit motive to the provision of public health-care services show that privatization tends to increase health-care costs.
And why wouldn’t it? Corporations exist to maximize profit, not to provide public services.
I think Toronto takes this one. Battle of Ontario!
This. But I feel it's a problem for me. I have a brother who votes Conservative. And I just have a hard time with it because the party's platforms aren't actually in his and his family's interests, but I think as a white man he feels they speak to him and he likes the simplicity (eg, Fuck Trudeau, immigrants are raising the cost of living). After years of listening to Joe Rogan, it's predictable probably. But I have a hard time relating to him. I need to think about how to approach our next conversation. Because I think he's so dumb, and it riles me up (!!!) because this is democracy, not just his shitty taste in podcasts (ie, JR). /ventover
Great picture of Bedford in '23 in its depiction of the effects of climate change. I hadn't seen, which is a me thing. But it makes me think that these pics (e.g., Canadian ones) should be shared a lot to increase awareness of the reality of climate change
This stinks
Link down, now: https://theflatlander.ca/saskatchewan-health-minister-quashes-claim-of-babies-going-to-u-s-for-medical-care/
Saskatchewan’s health minister has rejected accusations from a nurses union and the Opposition NDP that some babies from Regina’s neonatal intensive care unit were sent to North Dakota for care.
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I'm glad I could be of some help! It'd be nice to have more, but online forums can provide meaningful interaction and support.
I think your nervousness about antipsychotic side effects is entirely reasonable. Ideally, you have a healthcare provider whom you trust, who listens to your concerns, and guides drug and dosing accordingly. I'm of the opinion that the benefits of exploring medication outweigh the risks for most people with schizophrenia-like conditions. If there are certain side effects (e.g., weight gain, effects on sexual function, ticks and tremors) that you're particularly worried about, this would be good information to bring to an appointment - as there are many different types of medication available, and their side effect profiles differ. Just putting this out there: if you go to a medical clinic and explain your schizophrenia-like symptoms (ie, hallucinations and delusions), I think you'll likely get a referral and be prioritized for a service that at the very least can prescribe and supervise medication management and, hopefully, can connect you with some talk and/or social services that aren't pay-out-of-pocket.
It's been nice connecting. Keep your stick on the ice.
This is the same bogus and weaponizable logic that legitimate criticism of Israel's genocide = 'antisemitism' is. If you want to call legitimate criticism of the illegal and unethical actions of this POTUS administration 'hate for America', the notion that deportations (of US-born people) are going to ramp up shortly just became very real for me
Startpage (search engine) displays results from TMDB. It looks like it might be decent: https://www.themoviedb.org/movie/33602-temple-grandin
Tanks :) I'll check it out
Unfortunately, no, I'm not aware of any alternate platform to imdb. I use Wikipedia for movie info, but it doesn't have fan/ user reviews, etc.
May I ask what movie? imdb is amazon, which I don't support
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Hey friend, I can tell you're in pain and want to respond, but I don't know what kind of response you're looking for.
From your first paragraph, it sounds like you have a good idea of what's causing the psychotic symptoms: the personal issues that don't have a resolution at the moment. Taking a CBT approach (which isn't very like me), I'd guess you're experiencing something like:
(@#$ing tired of) unresolved personal issues -> X -> increased hallucinations and delusions
Maybe you don't recognize an X right now. But if you can identify an X and modify how you relate to it a little bit, maybe you can break the chain and reduce the symptoms. Is X "I won't survive this", "I'm rotten", "My life is not worth living", etc.?
Besides the personal issues and the psychotic symptoms, that might be something that can change and improve your well-being.
I hear many strengths in what you shared. You have good insight as to who you are, a good relationship with a sibling, and you have tools to de-stress when you're around others for extended periods of time.
I also sense a less than ideal amount of support. Are there people you can talk to about the personal issues you mentioned as well as the hallucinations and delusions? Can you access mental healthcare? If you're not taking medication, do you have any interest in trying?
Yes, Nats are tough. They swept my 7-5 Blue Jays
OTTAWA - With the stock market plunged into chaos by U.S. President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs, Canadians have decided to simply wait out America's forthcoming economic collapse and then buy the nation on the cheap.
Great investigating by The Grind. So, labels of "hate crime" are being used by Toronto cops to silence legitimate protest of the genocide in Gaza and give themselves more of our precious municipal budget. Very MAGA-like
A post-USAID world is set to be dangerous and dominated by China. Poilievre wants to make things worse.
VANCOUVER - There is a window of relief for British Columbia farmers from the devastating waves of avian flu, leaving them to assess the toll of outbreaks spanning more than
‘Hands off’: Across Canada, protesters rally against Trump
MONTREAL - Protesters rallied in several cities across the country on Sunday to demonstrate against Donald Trump's threats to Canadian sovereignty, as backlash to an American president who appears bent
"You're at home and then you hear that Donald Trump maybe wants to invade Canada, and that all the Trumpist values can come and contaminate us," said event organizer and renowned Quebec journalist Alain Saulnier. "What we wanted to do was allow people to get out of their homes and make it clear that they do not want Trump here."
The sentiment resounded from the Maritimes to the Prairies.
The demonstrations came a day after Americans gathered in all 50 states to protest the president's agenda following a dizzying 11 weeks that saw Trump throw up tariff walls, dismantle some government offices and pardon nearly all defendants involved in the attack on the U.S. Capitol in 2021.
Premier Wab Kinew hosts rally for Canada in Winnipeg
Thousands of Winnipeggers gathered at the legislature building on Sunday to attend Rally for Canada, hosted by the provincial government.
People showed up to celebrate the Canadian nation and show their Manitoban and Canadian pride!
“We’ll always be the true north strong and free. And we will never be the 51st State!” Kinew exclaimed. “Together, we will keep this land glorious and free! Merci, vive la Canada!”
The rally featured musical guests, food trucks, and plenty of activities for kids, with premier Wab Kinew addressing the crowd.
“The fact that somebody like me, people like us have opportunity to make our lives what we want them to be, that’s what makes Canada so special, that’s what makes Canada so beautiful, and that’s what makes Canada worth fighting for,” said Kinew.
People showed up in droves, decked out in all things Canadian, and the message to President Trump and the United States was quite clear.
~
https://mstdn.ca/@stevevrporter/114293351479492573
TTC audit shows growing safety concerns, high turnover among non-union staff
A newly released audit of the Toronto Transit Corporation’s (TTC) operations found growing discontent among the transit agency’s non-unionized staff, including worsening concerns about safety and a turnover rate of up to 62 per cent in some departments in recent years.
In 2023 and 2024 exit surveys the TTC conducted with departing employees, over half of respondents said their decision to leave was influenced, mostly or in part, by an “unhealthy organizational culture,” “lack of trust in the executive/senior leadership,” and “growth and career advancement.”
A smaller percentage of employees responded that “psychological safety” (35 per cent), “discrimination towards them during their employment” (29 per cent), and “physical safety” (14 per cent) were contributing factors in their choice to leave.
Protesters tee off on Trump, Musk in global 'Hands Off' rallies
Hennessy’s Index: Proportional representation
In 2021, Fair Vote Canada marked the 100-year anniversary of politicians promising to move from first-past-the-post voting to proportional representation in Canada. (Dear reader: We are still waiting).
In 2021, Fair Vote Canada marked the 100-year anniversary of politicians promising to move from first-past-the-post voting to proportional representation in Canada. (Dear reader: We are still waiting).
What if we stop knowing what’s true from what isn’t?
“The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.”—George Orwell, 1984.
It was surreal to watch this unfold in real time. And it reminded me of an important and eye-opening 2024 report, Disruptions on the Horizon, by Policy Horizons Canada. It identified 35 potential disruptions to Canadian stability.
Number one among the top potential disruptions: People cannot tell what is true and what is not.
The rise of zany conspiracy theory politics
British Columbia has long had a reputation as Canada’s most progressive province.
I’ve been reporting on right-wing politics over the last decade for PressProgress and have gone deep into the weeds on Canada’s online far-right. We are not simply seeing a rise in “conspiracies” and “misinformation” per se, I think we are witnessing tectonic shifts inside Canada’s conservative movement.
A decade or two ago, this was a movement that revolved around ideas about free markets, small government and reactionary social values. That’s all still there, but for a growing segment of the right, these ideas have been increasingly displaced by a sprawling, conspiratorial metanarrative that imagines an evil global cabal is using technocratic climate policies, authoritarian public health rules and gender-inclusive educational materials to control the world and keep ordinary people in their place—and yes, it is every bit as unhinged as that sounds.
In fact, I’m no longer sure the word “conspiracy” fully captures what’s really happening here.
The first thing you need to unde
‘Hard and fast from every direction’: inside the group plotting Poilievre’s blitzkrieg of cuts
Pierre Poilievre’s first days in government would rely on ‘the Mike Harris playbook’
It was an ominous sign. Mike Harris’s government had moved quickly to make dramatic reforms. They had a hundred-day agenda, and they got a lot done: laying off public sector employees, cutting funding to education, slashing social assistance rates, deregulating industries, repealing equity laws, selling off Crown corporations, and empowering the government to impose user fees on public services.
“It’s going to come hard and fast from every direction again,” Evan’s acquaintance said. The groups and communities impacted, as well as the political opposition, both inside Parliament and outside, would have to fight on dozens of fronts at once.
Last week, the Israeli media outlet Haaretz reported that Israel had “committed the largest child massacre in its history. Two
In Canada, the widely adopted International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance’s definition of antisemitism has served as a tool to bludgeon and silence those engaged in political activism — the primary goal of which is to halt the mass murder of Palestinian children — as being hostile toward Jewish people as a group.
As Independent Jewish Voices notes on its webpage detailing the numerous faults within the IHRA definition:
“The IHRA definition comes appended with 11 illustrative examples of antisemitism, seven of which specifically focus on the state of Israel, rather than on Jews as a group. The list of examples is intended to conflate antisemitism with criticism of Israel and Zionism.”
Most recent polling found that the Liberal Party has a 21 percentage-point lead in the region, which includes Prince Edward Island, Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, and New Brunswick. Nationally, the Conservatives and the Liberals are neck-and-neck.
Polls have done an about-face in the region, which experts say is fuelled by a historic lean toward the party amid threats from the outside, while the longstanding desire for change has been satiated by a new Liberal leader.
Most recent polling found the Liberal Party has a 21 percentage-point lead in the region, which includes Prince Edward Island, Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, and New Brunswick. Nationally, the Conservatives and the Liberals are neck-and-neck.
The Liberals had fallen behind in popularity over the past two years. The party currently holds 24 of 32 seats across the Atlantic provinces, a decline from the 32 seats it captured in the 2015 election.
U.S. Customs and Border Protection is detaining families with young children for days and weeks at crossings along the New York-Canada border
Blue Jays 2025 season opener 💙🐦🎉
The Jays' season opens Thursday March 27, hosting the Orioles in the first of a four-game homestand.
It should be an interesting year. Many think the front office will react based on early season performance; i.e., acquire more talent or sell off pieces if the team is good or bad, respectively. Vladdy's in a walk year, as is Bo. Varsho has 1 more year of arbitration. People around the organization seem to think President, Mark Shapiro, has been extended based on his language in recent press conferences, although that has not been announced. Will Max Sherzer's thumb significantly limit the innings he pitches? How will Manoah look? Who's the fourth best hitter on the team? There's a lot to keep an eye on.
Many think Boston's got the best team in the AL East, following by NYY and Baltimore, followed by Tampa and Toronto (ie, 3 layers). Consensus also seems to be that the Jays have an outside chance at a wild card spot.
I want to see them back in the playoffs. I hope it's an entertainin
Conservatives like to blame a lack of affordability in Canada on the carbon tax, but this is a misdirection from the real cause of rising prices.
A forensic analysis of Statistics Canada data on the composition of recent inflation confirms that fossil fuels haven’t protected Canadians from affordability problems. In fact, fossil fuels were the biggest single cause of those problems.
The 2022 spike in global oil prices, channeled immediately into higher prices for fossil fuel products sold in Canada, was by far the biggest single factor setting off post-pandemic inflation. From January 2021 through June 2022 (when inflation peaked), consumer prices for fossil fuels grew 81 per cent. Prices for fossil fuels used as inputs by businesses grew even more, by 127 per cent.
The direct costs of higher fossil fuels caused almost half of all consumer price inflation in that time—and more than half of inflation over the Bank of Canada’s two per cent target. Add in the indirect costs faced by businesses in other industries (from agriculture to transportation to construction) for their fossil fuel purchases, all passed on to consumer
Premier Doug Ford is no stranger to scandal and financial mismanagement. After seven years, it can be hard to keep track of all the instances. So we’ve put together an incomplete tour of the premier’s…