So, I think you're most on the right track of the responses...
It seems to just be exclusively incoming from lemmy.world. If you look here, my most recent comment is on lemmy.world:
https://social.packetloss.gg/comment/1415801
https://lemmy.world/comment/8710941
The instance just isn't getting any new posts, comments, or votes back from lemmy.world.
Everytime I shut down the lemmy server I see this:
2024-03-23T17:34:33.774333Z WARN lemmy_server: Received ctrl-c, shutting down gracefully...
2024-03-23T17:34:33.774912Z WARN lemmy_federate: Waiting for 1618 workers (30.00s max)
That number never seems to move, there are always 1618 works. I'm not sure if that means anything or not regarding pending processing or what have you.
I am seeing in my publicly facing nginx logs:
135.181.143.221 - - [22/Mar/2024:12:23:28 +0000] "POST /inbox HTTP/1.1" 499 0 "-" "Lemmy/0.19.3; +https://lemmy.world"
135.181.143.221 - - [22/Mar/2024:12:23:40 +0000] "POST /inbox HTTP/1.1" 499 0 "-" "Lemmy/0.19.3; +https://lemmy.world"
135.181.143.221 - - [22/Mar/2024:12:23:54 +0000] "POST /inbox HTTP/1.1" 499 0 "-" "Lemmy/0.19.3; +https://lemmy.world"
135.181.143.221 - - [22/Mar/2024:12:24:12 +0000] "POST /inbox HTTP/1.1" 499 0 "-" "Lemmy/0.19.3; +https://lemmy.world"
135.181.143.221 - - [22/Mar/2024:12:24:38 +0000] "POST /inbox HTTP/1.1" 499 0 "-" "Lemmy/0.19.3; +https://lemmy.world"
135.181.143.221 - - [22/Mar/2024:12:25:21 +0000] "POST /inbox HTTP/1.1" 499 0 "-" "Lemmy/0.19.3; +https://lemmy.world"
135.181.143.221 - - [22/Mar/2024:12:26:35 +0000] "POST /inbox HTTP/1.1" 499 0 "-" "Lemmy/0.19.3; +https://lemmy.world"
135.181.143.221 - - [22/Mar/2024:12:28:53 +0000] "POST /inbox HTTP/1.1" 499 0 "-" "Lemmy/0.19.3; +https://lemmy.world"
135.181.143.221 - - [22/Mar/2024:12:33:19 +0000] "POST /inbox HTTP/1.1" 499 0 "-" "Lemmy/0.19.3; +https://lemmy.world"
135.181.143.221 - - [22/Mar/2024:12:42:01 +0000] "POST /inbox HTTP/1.1" 499 0 "-" "Lemmy/0.19.3; +https://lemmy.world"
135.181.143.221 - - [22/Mar/2024:12:59:15 +0000] "POST /inbox HTTP/1.1" 499 0 "-" "Lemmy/0.19.3; +https://lemmy.world"
135.181.143.221 - - [22/Mar/2024:13:33:33 +0000] "POST /inbox HTTP/1.1" 499 0 "-" "Lemmy/0.19.3; +https://lemmy.world"
135.181.143.221 - - [22/Mar/2024:21:31:55 +0000] "POST /inbox HTTP/1.1" 499 0 "-" "Lemmy/0.19.3; +https://lemmy.world"
There's then an internal nginx server that sees:
10.241.127.2 - - [22/Mar/2024:12:23:18 +0000] "POST /inbox HTTP/1.1" 200 0 "-" "Lemmy/0.19.3; +https://lemmy.world"
10.241.127.2 - - [22/Mar/2024:12:24:19 +0000] "POST /inbox HTTP/1.1" 408 0 "-" "Lemmy/0.19.3; +https://lemmy.world"
10.241.127.2 - - [22/Mar/2024:12:24:31 +0000] "POST /inbox HTTP/1.1" 408 0 "-" "Lemmy/0.19.3; +https://lemmy.world"
10.241.127.2 - - [22/Mar/2024:12:24:45 +0000] "POST /inbox HTTP/1.1" 408 0 "-" "Lemmy/0.19.3; +https://lemmy.world"
10.241.127.2 - - [22/Mar/2024:12:25:03 +0000] "POST /inbox HTTP/1.1" 408 0 "-" "Lemmy/0.19.3; +https://lemmy.world"
10.241.127.2 - - [22/Mar/2024:12:25:29 +0000] "POST /inbox HTTP/1.1" 408 0 "-" "Lemmy/0.19.3; +https://lemmy.world"
10.241.127.2 - - [22/Mar/2024:12:26:11 +0000] "POST /inbox HTTP/1.1" 408 0 "-" "Lemmy/0.19.3; +https://lemmy.world"
10.241.127.2 - - [22/Mar/2024:12:27:25 +0000] "POST /inbox HTTP/1.1" 408 0 "-" "Lemmy/0.19.3; +https://lemmy.world"
10.241.127.2 - - [22/Mar/2024:12:29:43 +0000] "POST /inbox HTTP/1.1" 408 0 "-" "Lemmy/0.19.3; +https://lemmy.world"
10.241.127.2 - - [22/Mar/2024:12:34:09 +0000] "POST /inbox HTTP/1.1" 408 0 "-" "Lemmy/0.19.3; +https://lemmy.world"
10.241.127.2 - - [22/Mar/2024:12:42:51 +0000] "POST /inbox HTTP/1.1" 408 0 "-" "Lemmy/0.19.3; +https://lemmy.world"
10.241.127.2 - - [22/Mar/2024:13:00:06 +0000] "POST /inbox HTTP/1.1" 408 0 "-" "Lemmy/0.19.3; +https://lemmy.world"
10.241.127.2 - - [22/Mar/2024:13:34:24 +0000] "POST /inbox HTTP/1.1" 408 0 "-" "Lemmy/0.19.3; +https://lemmy.world"
10.241.127.2 - - [22/Mar/2024:14:42:49 +0000] "POST /inbox HTTP/1.1" 408 0 "-" "Lemmy/0.19.3; +https://lemmy.world"
10.241.127.2 - - [22/Mar/2024:16:59:32 +0000] "POST /inbox HTTP/1.1" 408 0 "-" "Lemmy/0.19.3; +https://lemmy.world"
10.241.127.2 - - [22/Mar/2024:21:32:45 +0000] "POST /inbox HTTP/1.1" 408 0 "-" "Lemmy/0.19.3; +https://lemmy.world"
10.241.127.2 - - [23/Mar/2024:06:39:03 +0000] "POST /inbox HTTP/1.1" 408 0 "-" "Lemmy/0.19.3; +https://lemmy.world"
So, things did start timing out. I'm not sure what to do about that though.
This server is not resource starved:
load average: 0.04, 0.09, 0.10
total used free shared buff/cache available
Mem: 31507 7651 1092 164 22764 23239
Swap: 16087 1 16086
It's just this lemmy.world data that's suddenly out of wack after months of normal operation (both on lemmy 18 and 19).
It feels like a bad payload that the server just can't move past for some reason and lemmy.world keeps sending.
I had logging on the lemmy container itself piped to /dev/null because it's just such a noisy log. I turned it back on... I'll see if I can find more information next time lemmy.world posts.