What was once considered rare has become alarmingly common, as climate change accelerates the frequency and severity of such events,” said an editorial in the Pakistani newspaper Dawn. The country “remains woefully unprepared for the escalating climate crisis”, it said.

Global average surface temperatures shattered all-time records in 2023 at 1.45 ± 0.12 °C above pre-industrial levels (WMO 2024). Worsened by climate change-induced drought, Canadian wildfires burned 18.5 million hectares, nearly three-times more land area than in any previous year on record (NRC 2023). Parts of the Amazon River reached their lowest levels in 120 years of data-keeping and, in places, recorded surface water temperatures near 40 °C (Rodrigues 2023). The world has reached the threshold of a 1.5 °C increase in global average surface temperature and is only beginning to experience the full consequences.

Methane (CH4) is the second most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide. It contributed 0.5 °C of warming in the 2010s relative to the late 1800s—two-thirds as much warming as CO2 (IPCC 2021). It is also far more potent than CO2 ton for ton, with a global warming potential (GWP) >80 and 30 times more than CO2 for the first twenty years and century after

Abstract

The growth rate of the atmospheric abundance of methane (CH4) reached a record high of 15.4 ppb yr−1 between 2020 and 2022, but the mechanisms driving the accelerated CH4 growth have so far been unclear. In this work, we use measurements of the 13C:12C ratio of CH4 (expressed as δ13CCH4) from NOAA’s Global Greenhouse Gas Reference Network and a box model to investigate potential drivers for the rapid CH4 growth. These measurements show that the record-high CH4 growth in 2020–2022 was accompanied by a sharp decline in δ13CCH4, indicating that the increase in CH4 abundance was mainly driven by increased emissions from microbial sources such as wetlands, waste, and agriculture. We use our box model to reject increasing fossil fuel emissions or decreasing hydroxyl radical sink as the dominant driver for increasing global methane abundance.

Summary

Background

Rising global atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations and surface temperatures could negatively affect rice yields and nutritional quality; however, their effects on arsenic accumulation in paddy rice have not been assessed concurrently. We aimed to assess the impact of increases in CO2 and temperature (individually and in combination) on arsenic concentrations in rice, characterise soil properties that might influence arsenic uptake, and model the associated risks of cancer and other health outcomes due to increased arsenic exposure.

Methods

For this modelling study we performed in-situ multi-varietal trials using Free-Air CO2 Enrichment platforms with and without supplemental temperature to examine the bioaccumulation of arsenic in paddy rice and the underlying biogeochemical mechanisms from 2014 to 2023. We modelled dietary inorganic arsenic exposure and the associated risks of cancer and non-cancer health outcomes via rice consumption for seven of the

Abstract

Humid heatwaves are a growing risk to human and animal health, especially in tropical regions. While there is established research on dry-bulb temperature heatwaves, greater understanding of the meteorological drivers of extreme humid heat is urgently needed. In this study, we find that recent rainfall is a key control on the occurrence of humid heatwaves in the tropics and subtropics and its effect is regulated by the energy- or moisture-limited state of the land surface. In moisture-limited environments, heatwaves are likely during, or immediately after, enhanced rainfall. In energy-limited environments, heatwaves are likely after suppression of rainfall for two days or longer. The nature of the threat to health from heat stress varies by environment. It depends on local adaptation to temperature or humidity extremes, as well as vulnerability to absolute or anomalous extremes. Early warning systems, which reduce exposure and vulnerability to weather extremes, can benefit fr

Jem Bendell is the originator of the concept of Deep Adaptation.

For those who may be unfamiliar with the term, Wiki summarizes Deep Adaptation as:

Deep Adaptation is a concept, agenda, and international social movement. It presumes that extreme weather events and other effects of climate change will increasingly disrupt food, water, shelter, power, and social and governmental systems. These disruptions would likely or inevitably cause uneven societal collapse in the next few decades. The word “deep” indicates that strong measures are required to adapt to an unraveling of industrial lifestyles, following prior usages such as deep ecology. The agenda includes values of nonviolence, compassion, curiosity and respect, with a framework for constructive action.

Article excerpt:

Many of us are lucky that societal collapse is still only a concept. It can be our way of understanding the increasing difficulties we experience, or the increasing damage to the natural world, or can descri

Everything is dependent on the power network.

Abstract

Rising carbon dioxide emissions are provoking ocean warming and acidification1,2, altering plankton habitats and threatening calcifying organisms3, such as the planktonic foraminifera (PF). Whether the PF can cope with these unprecedented rates of environmental change, through lateral migrations and vertical displacements, is unresolved. Here we show, using data collected over the course of a century as FORCIS4 global census counts, that the PF are displaying evident poleward migratory behaviours, increasing their diversity at mid- to high latitudes and, for some species, descending in the water column. Overall foraminiferal abundances have decreased by 24.2 ± 0.1% over the past eight decades. Beyond lateral migrations5, our study has uncovered intricate vertical migration patterns among foraminiferal species, presenting a nuanced understanding of their adaptive strategies. In the temperature and calcite saturation states projected for 2050 and 2100, low-latitude foraminifera

The high growth rate of atmospheric CO2 in 2023 was found to be caused by a severe reduction of the global net land carbon sink. Here we update the global CO2 budget from January 1st to July 1st 2024, during which El Niño drought conditions continued to prevail in the Tropics but ceased by March 2024. We used three dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs), machine learning emulators of ocean models, three atmospheric inversions driven by observations from the second Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO-2) satellite, and near-real-time fossil CO2 emissions estimates. In a one-year period from July 2023 to July 2024 covering the El Niño 2023/24 event, we found a record-high CO2 growth rate of 3.66_±0.09 ppm_{yr−1 (±}1 standard deviation) since 1979. Yet, the CO2 growth rate anomaly obtained after removing the long term trend is 1.1 ppm~yr−1, which is marginally smaller than the July--July growth rate anomalies of the two major previous El Niño events in 1997/98 and 2015/16. The atmospheric C

Abstract

The potential for societal collapse has become a pressing concern as the impacts of climate change intensify, threatening global stability. This paper explores the multifaceted risks of collapse, emphasizing the interconnected environmental, economic, and geopolitical pressures that contribute to vulnerability. By examining historical collapses, such as those of the Roman Empire and the Maya civilization, alongside contemporary examples like Syria, Venezuela, and Yemen, the paper highlights the unique challenges of the current global crisis. Unlike past localized collapses, today's climate crisis is unprecedented in its speed and scale, raising critical questions about the adaptability of modern societies. The study proposes adaptive strategies, including fostering local self-sufficiency, building resilient community networks, and embracing uncertainty as central to survival in a deeply altered world. It argues that while historical lessons provide valuable insights, new appr

This brief article discusses the possibility of near-term human extinction (NTHE) and reviews the scientific evidence supporting the case that NTHE may come to pass.

From the article,

The combined effects of the exponential rise of global heating, paired with the chaotic and uncontrollable momentum of cascading positive feedback loops in the climate caused by crossing irreversible tipping points, are already driving global temperatures to a difference of geological proportions before the end of this decade.

. . .

Just one major event could effectively eradicate the now fatally precarious conditions of human habitat on this planet and swiftly seal our fate into extinction.

The article addresses the following questions / points:

• Is near-term human extinction really possible?
• How soon is “near-term”?
• Is there any scientific research supporting the case for near-term human extinction?
• Where we are — a snapshot
• Sudden events likely to cause human extinction
• Scie