Bulletins and News Discussion from July 7th to July 13th, 2025 - Sanctions on Russia: The Sequel

Image is of the Power of Siberia natural gas pipeline, which transports gas from Russia to China. This isn't an oil pipeline (such as the ESPO) but I thought it looked cool. Source here.

Trump has recently proposed a 500% tariff on goods from countries that trade with Russia, including India and China (who buy ~70% of Russia's oil output), as well as a 10% additional tariff on goods from countries that "align themselves with BRICS." Considering that China is the largest trading partner of most of the countries on the planet at this point, and India and Brazil are reasonably strong regional players, I'm not sure what exactly "alignment" means, but it could be pretty bad.

Sanctions and tariffs on Russian products have been difficult to achieve in practice. It's easy to write an order to sanction Russia, but much harder to actually enforce these sorts of things because of, for example, the Russian shadow oil fleet, or countries like Kazakhstan acting as covert middlemen (well, as covert as a very sudden oil export boom can be).

Considering that China was pretty soundly victorious last time around, I'm cautiously optimistic, especially because China and India just outright cutting off their supply of energy and fuel would be catastrophic to them (and if Iran and Israel go to war again any time in the near future, it'll only be more disastrous). Barring China and India kowtowing to Trump and copying Europe vis-a-vis Nordstream 2 (which isn't impossible, I suppose), the question is whether China and India will appear to accede to these commands while secretly continuing trade with Russia through middlemen, or if they will be more defiant in the face of American pressure.

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Lula makes fun of Bolsonaro and says tariffs are based on “lies”. During an event in Espírito Santo about the Mariana dam, the PT leader made fun of what was supposed to be a conversation between Eduardo Bolsonaro and Donald Trump, with the former pleading for his father's freedom.
"So I want to say, with all due respect to President Trump, you are misinformed, very misinformed. The United States does not have a trade deficit with Brazil. It is Brazil that has a trade deficit with the United States. Just so you have an idea, in 15 years, between trade and services, we have a deficit of 410 billion dollars with the United States. It's up to us to tax him. Now, what is the reason he gives for taxing us? Firstly, he's fighting a lie that the United States doesn't have a deficit with Brazil. Secondly, what is his logic?
[Lula does a voice mimicking Trump]: "Oh, pwease don't presecute Bolsonaro, pwease stops this immediately. Stop this immediately!"
[Lula returns to his normal voice]: Because the 'thing' [Jair Bolsonaro] sent a son [Eduardo Bolsonaro] who was a congressman away from the Congress to go there and ask:
[Lula does a childish voice mimicking Eduardo]: “Hey, Trump, for God's sake, Trump, my free my daddy, don't let my daddy be arrested, bwaah bwaah”.
[Lula returns to his normal voice]: These people need to be ashamed of themselves. Be ashamed of yourself, be ashamed of yourself, because the smallest thing in a man, he has no character. You saw his son on the internet yesterday reading a letter:
[Lula does a childish voice mimicking Eduardo]: "'Oh, Trump, Trump' you know? 'Pwease say you won't tax Brazil, if my father isn't arrested.' What kind of man is this, folks? What kind of man is this who has no shame? Shouldn't he be facing his trial head on and proving that he was innocent [instead of doing this]?"
Vid
- He's got so much moxie for 79 yo. Though it's still sad to see him so thin I grew up seeing him bigger
  
  Though it's still sad to see him so thin I grew up seeing him bigger
  While he is older, I also believe that the fact that he had a very serious laryngeal cancer (which is why his voice sounds different) in 2011, the stress of being illegally arrested and seeing his second wife die because of it, really affected his health.
  
  What a life. I'm sure there are already a couple of good Lula biographies around but I know that 10 years after he passes away there's gonna be a massive 2 tome volume about his whole life that will be fascinating to read

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