Bulletins and News Discussion from June 16th to June 22nd, 2025 - Iran, Harden Your Heart

Image is of destruction and damage inside Israel, sourced from this article.

Iran and Israel have struck each other many times over the last few days. There has been a general focus on military facilities and headquarters by both sides, though Israel has also struck oil facilities, civilian structures and hospitals, and in return for this, Iran has struck major scientific centers and the Haifa oil facilities.

Israel appears to have three main aims. First, to collapse the Iranian state, either through shock and breakdown by killing enough senior officials, or via some sort of internal military coup. Second, to try and destroy Iranian nuclear sites and underground missile cities, or at least to paralyze them long enough to achieve the first and third goals. And third, to bring the US into a direct conflict with Iran. This is because the US better equipped to fight them than Israel is (though victory would still not be guaranteed depending on what Iran chooses to do).

Iranian nuclear facilities are hidden deep underground (800 meters), far beyond the depth range of even the most powerful bunker busters (~70 meters or so), and built such that the visible ground entrances are horizontally far away in an unknown direction from the actual underground chambers. Only an extremely competent full-scale American bombing force all simultaneously using multiple of the most powerful conventional (perhaps even nuclear) bunker busters could even hypothetically hope to breach them (and we have seen how, in practice, American bunker busters have largely failed to impair or deter Ansarallah). There are several analysts on both sides who have concluded that it is entirely impossible to physically prevent Iran from building nukes.

I fully expect the US to join the war. I believe the current ambiguity is a deliberate invention of the US while they work to move their military assets into position, and as soon as they are ready, the US will start bombing Iran. After that, Iran's leadership must - if they haven't already - harden their hearts, and strike back with no fear, or risk following the path of Libya, Syria, and Iraq, either into either surrender, occupation, or annihilation. Every day where they do not possess a nuke is a day where lives are being lost and cities are being bombed.

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A former CIA officer has shared his thoughts on the unfolding situation:
"Given that history, I suggest everyone pour themselves a big scotch or vodka and relax. Initial reports almost always are grossly exaggerated. Here is one possibility: Trump may be doing another Houthi spin… you know, declare that Iran has capitulated and then pull US forces out of harms way. Iran has been extremely patient to a lengthy list of US provocations. I believe they were counseled by Russia and China to let the US strike the first blow, then Iran could retaliate and would have the full backing of both countries. It is highly unlikely that the US has delivered a crippling blow to Iran. If anything, the US has now provided the hardliners more ammunition for Iran to do the very thing that Trump claims he is trying to prevent… build a nuke.
There is a lot of political theater going on in Washington. Have you heard any word of the Bushehr nuclear reactor? Notice that not one word is being said about the Bushehr nuclear powerplant. Not one. Why? Because the Russians are there and that is the only place in Iran that is protected by a Russian-supplied S-400. Russia explicitly warned Washington and Jerusalem that any attack on that facility would be considered an attack on Russia. Oh, by the way, Russia also is building two additional nuclear powerplants in Iran and neither of them has been touched either.
Maybe Iran’s next step is to contract with Russia and China to rebuild and restore the nuclear facilities that have been attacked. With Russia and China on the ground at those sites, the West, including the Zionist crazies, would face serious risk of igniting a global conflagration if the West attacked them. The critical point is that Russia and China are going to have Iran’s back on this. To do otherwise would simply embolden Trump and NATO to pursue similar measures against Russia and China. I think Putin and Xi grasp that strategic reality.
I expect Iran will hit US bases — airfields, naval facilities and ground installations in Iraq and Syria — within the next 24 hours; perhaps sooner. In the event that the US suffers casualties, then Trump will be under greater pressure to escalate. At that point, Trump will have lost control of his agenda and will be a hostage to a new war that he started. He didn’t learn a damn thing from his failed venture with the Houthis and now, by fighting Iran, is going to become more ensnared in the West Asian quicksand."
https://sonar21.com/will-trumps-political-military-theater-widen-the-war/
- IDK who that guy is but he has a surprisingly sober take. I agree almost 100%.
  
  Sober take that opens with “get drunk”
- Pretty much this. If Iran was in any serious danger it would have tried to negotiate to kill some time on the clock. But they didn't so they must not feel threatened.
  
  Or that's what they were already doing until last Friday.
- My only disagreement is that I fully believe that Iran could kill some American service members and Trump could get away with doing literally nothing about it if he wanted to. Anything short of a full on massacre of American troops and he can just wiggle around and bluster until everyone stops giving a shit after 13 hours or so. The value of the American life as an influencer on policy is at an all time low.

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