Bulletins and News Discussion from April 14th to April 20th, 2025 - The Lamentations of a Levy-Loving Leader

Image is of Trump's initial set of reciprocal tariffs. Source is CNN and Reuters.

It's difficult to keep up with the news around the tariffs; they get instated, then dropped, then reinstated... for example, on Friday, Trump said that certain electronics like smartphones would be exempt, causing markets to rally a great deal, but now the Commerce Secretary has said that they might not be exempt? The state of play right now, if you haven't been keeping up this week, is that the US recently announced a 90-day global pause on implementing the tariffs he had planned (that is, 25% on certain Canadian and Mexican goods, and at least 10% on every other nation) but nonetheless increased tariffs on China to 145%.

Meanwhile, China has been - quite remarkably - standing their ground, increasing tariffs on the US to 125%, and putting restrictions on rare earths. Xi Jinping has been in Vietnam and has made statements against a tariff war there, saying that it would have no winners. Meanwhile, a Chinese spokesperson has essentially said that China can endure the tariff war due to the increasing demand from its domestic market in combination with its growing economic ties with other countries.

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US airstrikes continue on Yemen for the 33rd day and night in a row, with lots of airstrikes all over the country. Two US airstrikes took place in Saada and Dhamar Governorates, along with Saudi Arabian artillery, earlier during the daytime. During the night, over 20 airstrikes were reported in and around the capital city Sana'a, with multiple rounds of airstrikes targeting the city itself as well as underground facilities. The roar of jets was heard over Sana'a, such has become a common occurrence over the last week. Al Jawf and Hodeidah (four airstrikes) Governorates were also hit by US airstrikes. Another round of airstrikes is currently ongoing around the capital, Sana'a.
Renewed airstrikes on Hodeidah Governorate.
Videos of earlier airstrikes on Sana'a
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Warning for potential graphic imagery of casualties during ongoing airstrikes:
Al Masirah TV twitter
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As for developments in the recent US campaign, following the recent downing of an MQ-9 Reaper drone/UCAV a few days ago, a renewed attempt has been made from the Carl Vinson Aircraft Carrier's flight wing, to carry out the Suppression/Destruction of Enemy Air Defenses (SEAD/DEAD) mission, to open up a corridor to other parts of Yemen in the same way a corridor has been opened up to Sana'a and Saada, so that drones and non stealth aircraft can operate freely without being fired upon or shot down in other regions of Yemen. Also plenty of stand in short range munitionss, 2000lb BLU-117 bombs fitted with GBU-31 JDAM guidance kits, being loaded into the internal weapons bays of F-35C 5th generation stealth aircraft, along with some being loaded onto F/A-18E/F series aircraft.
AGM-88E AARGM anti radiation missiles being prepared and loaded onto an EA-18G Growler SEAD aircraft (left), and an EA-18G taking off atmed with an AGM-88E:

GBU-31s being loaded onto F-35Cs:

My takeaway from this is not insightful, and the same takeaway that you can get from the outcomes of other air conflicts like the Russia-Ukraine war. If a force like Ansarallah/the Houthis, with their rudimentary air defences, can restrict the initial US bombing campaign (which used only 4th generation F/A-18 aircraft, no F-35Cs) to using standoff weapons like glide bombs and cruise missiles for the majority of strikes (stand in weapons like JDAMs were still used since the beginning, but for a minority of strikes) for the first few weeks of the conflict before they could open a more permanent corridor to Sana'a and Saada, then 4th generation non stealth aircraft are rapidly approaching their expiration date. Stealth/low radar observability and 5th generation capabilities are becoming a minimum requirement, or entry point, to waging a traditional air campaign with stand in weapons. Without stealth capabilities, aircraft are restricted to using standoff weapons. UCAVs like the MQ-9 are becoming increasingly obsolete against enemies with any form of air defence. SEAD/DEAD and electronic warfare (EW) capabilities are also incredibly important. Without the EA-18Gs, the US Navy would not be able to open these air corridors in Yemen.
- What are your thoughts on the redeployment of things like AA-guns as a counter to the Predator drones in areas like Sanaa where more modern AA defenses have been taken out?
  
  If the drones are operating at night, you can't see them unless you have infrared/thermal optics. Also the drones can easily fly above the maximum engagement range of AA guns like the ZU-23 (2.5km max range) while still being visible. You'd need something high calibre with the required altitude ceiling to reach it. I'd assume Iran has plenty of that for home defence, like the KS-19. The Iranian and Yemeni solution for these UCAVs in this environment like the MQ-9, is to use surface to air loitering munitions like Missile-358 and 359. Similar to the Russian Lancet loitering munition, but for air targets. These aren't traditional air defence systems with radars and missiles that go straight to the target, they get launched into the air, and can loiter over their designated area (say in a figure eight pattern) for hours until they acquire a target using the electro optical sensors (including infrared cameras) on the missile itself, either autonomously or under the control of an operator.
  If you look at the Russia-Ukraine war, AA guns are being used now for hunting down slow and very low flying propeller driven one way attack drones like the Shahed 136/Geran 2, with infrared optics to detect and aim at night. Either as point defence, or being mounted to the back of a pickup truck or as a Self Propelled Anti Aircraft Gun (SPAAG) system itself with radar guided shooting like the Gepard, to actively hunt down the drones on their way to the target. This can also be used for low flying subsonic cruise missiles, but aiming is more difficult due to how much faster these cruise missiles fly. And as these low flying one way attack drones get faster with jet engined variants (like the Shahed 238/Geran 3 being used by Russia now) similar to the original German V1 rocket, interception with AA guns is going to get more complex. Radar guidance, or computerised guidance that gets data from optics, is going to be a requirement, manually leading targets flying at higher speeds is going to become impossible.
  
  The "358" missile they use to shoot down drones is presumably very cheap and AFAIK can be launched individually from simple rails. It's also passively guided, so suppressing it with electronic warfare or air strikes is not very practical.

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